Carbon stock projection for four major forest plantation species in Japan.

Carbon sequestration via afforestation and forest growth is effective for mitigating global warming. Accurate and robust information on forest growth characteristics by tree species, region, and large-scale land-use change is vital and future prediction of forest carbon stocks based on this information is of great significance. These predictions allow exploring forestry practices that maximize carbon sequestration by forests, including wood production. Forest inventories based on field measurements are considered the most accurate method for estimating forest carbon stocks. Japan's national forest inventories (NFIs) provide stand volumes for all Japanese forests, and estimates from direct field observations (m-NFIs) are the most reliable. Therefore, using the m-NFI from 2009 to 2013, we selected four major forest plantation species in Japan: Cryptomeria japonica, Chamaecyparis obtusa, Pinus spp., and Larix kaempferi and presented their forest age-carbon density function. We then estimated changes in forest carbon stocks from the past to the present using the functions. Next, we investigated the differences in the carbon sequestration potential of forests, including wood production, between five forestry practice scenarios with varying harvesting and afforestation rates, until 2061. Our results indicate that, for all four forest types, the estimates of growth rates and past forest carbon stocks in this study were higher than those considered until now. The predicted carbon sequestration from 2011 to 2061, assuming that 100 % of harvested carbon is retained for a long time, twice the rate of harvesting compared to the current rate, and a 100 % afforestation rate in harvested area, was three to four times higher than that in a scenario with no harvesting or replanting. Our results suggest that planted Japanese forests can exhibit a high carbon sequestration potential under the premise of active management, harvesting, afforestation, and prolonging the residence time of stored carbon in wood products with technology development.

Mechanistic studies of isomeric [2]rotaxanes consisting of two different tetrathiafulvalene units reveal that the movement of cyclobis(paraquat-p-phenylene) can be controlled.

Controlling the movement in artificial molecular machines is a key challenge that needs to be solved before their full potential can be harnessed. In this study, two isomeric tri-stable [2]rotaxanes 1·4PF6 and 2·4PF6 incorporating both a tetrathiafulvalene (TTF) and a monopyrrolotetrathiafulvalene (MPTTF) unit in the dumbbell component have been synthesised to measure the energy barriers when the tetracationic cyclobis(paraquat-p-phenylene) (CBPQT4+) ring moves across either a TTF2+ or an MPTTF2+ dication. By strategically exchanging one of the thiomethyl barriers on either the TTF unit or the MPTTF unit with the bulkier thioethyl group, the movement of the CBPQT4+ ring in 14+ and 24+ can be controlled to take place in only one direction upon tetra-oxidation. Cyclic voltammetry and 1H NMR spectroscopy were used to investigate the switching mechanism and it was found that upon tetra-oxidation of 14+ and 24+, the CBPQT4+ ring moves first to a position where it is located between the TTF2+ and MPTTF2+ dications producing high-energy co-conformations which slowly interconvert into thermodynamically more stable co-conformations. The kinetics of the movement occurring in the tetra-oxidised [2]rotaxanes 18+ and 28+ were studied at different temperatures allowing the free energy of the transition state, when CBPQT4+ moves across TTF2+ (21.5 kcal mol-1) and MPTTF2+ (20.3 kcal mol-1) at 298 K, to be determined. These results demonstrate for the first time that the combination of a TTF and an MPTTF unit can be used to induce directional movement of the CBPQT4+ ring in molecular machines with a 90% efficiency.

Evaluating the energy landscape of an out-of-equilibrium bistable [2]rotaxane containing monopyrrolotetrathiafulvalene.

The unique redox properties of monopyrrolotetrathiafulvalene can be used to induce directional movement in interlocked molecules. In this study, the kinetics for the directional movement of cyclobis(paraquat-p-phenylene) across the dioxidised monopyrrolotetrathiafulvalene in a [2]rotaxane is quantified by time-resolved 1H NMR spectroscopy.

Recruitment, mortality and growth in semi-arid conifer-eucalypt forest: Small trees insure against fire and drought.

Aim: Well-managed semi-arid forests help offset global change by storing significant amounts of carbon above- and belowground and maintaining hydrological cycles. Larger trees have been the focus of many studies due to their carbon storage and habitat quality, yet recruitment and small trees are important components of ecosystem resilience and recovery. Here, we study the impacts of disturbances (including harvesting) on recruitment, mortality and growth for a mixed conifer-broadleaf semi-arid forest type using long-term data. Location: Pilliga Forest in New South Wales, inland eastern Australia. Taxon: Callitris-Eucalyptus forests. Methods: We used data from permanent sample plots (PSPs) spanning 55 years, calculated stand structure, gains and losses and determined reasons for tree death (harvesting, fire, wind, drought and other effects). We extracted climate and fire data for the PSP locations using spatial analysis. Results: Stocking of studied forests remained stable (modest increase in basal area and stem density), despite harvesting and wildfires over 6 decades. Compared to stands in the 1940s and prior to European settlement, current forests are composed of more trees per unit area, and these trees have smaller diameters. Recruitment and sustained presence of small trees have buffered impacts of recurring drought, fire and harvesting. Fires are a common feature of the studied ecosystems and fire impacts have increased in the past 20 years, especially in unmanaged stands, where fires have reduced tree carbon by >50%. Main conclusions: Recruitment and growth of small trees are critical to offset carbon losses due to fire, drought and harvesting. All size classes have important ecological values in semi-arid forests and must be included in long-term monitoring programmes. Long-term data offer unique insights into combined effects of climate change, management and disturbances, especially for fire-prone ecosystems, where small trees are often susceptible to fire.

Litter accumulation and fire risks show direct and indirect climate-dependence at continental scale.

Litter decomposition / accumulation are rate limiting steps in soil formation, carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling and fire risk in temperate forests, highlighting the importance of robust predictive models at all geographic scales. Using a data set for the Australian continent, we show that among a range of models, >60% of the variance in litter mass over a 40-year time span can be accounted for by a parsimonious model with elapsed time, and indices of aridity and litter quality, as independent drivers. Aridity is an important driver of variation across large geographic and climatic ranges while litter quality shows emergent properties of climate-dependence. Up to 90% of variance in litter mass for individual forest types can be explained using models of identical structure. Results provide guidance for future decomposition studies. Algorithms reported here can significantly improve accuracy and reliability of predictions of carbon and nutrient dynamics and fire risk.

Quantifying the barrier for the movement of cyclobis(paraquat-p-phenylene) over the dication of monopyrrolotetrathiafulvalene.

A bistable [2]pseudorotaxane 1⊂CBPQT·4PF6 and a bistable [2]rotaxane 2·4PF6 have been synthesised to measure the height of an electrostatic barrier produced by double molecular oxidation (0 to +2). Both systems have monopyrrolotetrathiafulvalene (MPTTF) and oxyphenylene (OP) as stations for cyclobis(paraquat-p-phenylene) (CBPQT4+). They have a large stopper at one end while the second stopper in 24+ is composed of a thioethyl (SEt) group and a thiodiethyleneglycol (TDEG) substituent, whereas in 1⊂CBPQT4+, the SEt group has been replaced with a less bulky thiomethyl (SMe) group. This seemingly small difference in the substituents on the MPTTF unit leads to profound changes when comparing the physical properties of the two systems allowing for the first measurement of the deslipping of the CBPQT4+ ring over an MPTTF2+ unit in the [2]pseudorotaxane. Cyclic voltammetry and 1H NMR spectroscopy were used to investigate the switching mechanism for 1⊂CBPQT·MPTTF4+ and 2·MPTTF4+, and it was found that CBPQT4+ moves first to the OP station producing 1⊂CBPQT·OP6+ and 2·OP6+, respectively, upon oxidation of the MPTTF unit. The kinetics of the complexation/decomplexation process occurring in 1⊂CBPQT·MPTTF4+ and in 1⊂CBPQT·OP6+ were studied, allowing the free energy of the transition state when CBPQT4+ moves across a neutral MPTTF unit (17.0 kcal mol-1) or a di-oxidised MPTTF2+ unit (24.0 kcal mol-1) to be determined. These results demonstrate that oxidation of the MPTTF unit to MPTTF2+ increases the energy barrier that the CBPQT4+ ring must overcome for decomplexation to occur by 7.0 kcal mol-1.

CO2, nitrogen deposition and a discontinuous climate response drive water use efficiency in global forests.

Reduced stomatal conductance is a common plant response to rising atmospheric CO2 and increases water use efficiency (W). At the leaf-scale, W depends on water and nitrogen availability in addition to atmospheric CO2. In hydroclimate models W is a key driver of rainfall, droughts, and streamflow extremes. We used global climate data to derive Aridity Indices (AI) for forests over the period 1965-2015 and synthesised those with data for nitrogen deposition and W derived from stable isotopes in tree rings. AI and atmospheric CO2 account for most of the variance in W of trees across the globe, while cumulative nitrogen deposition has a significant effect only in regions without strong legacies of atmospheric pollution. The relation of aridity and W displays a clear discontinuity. W and AI are strongly related below a threshold value of AI ≈ 1 but are not related where AI > 1. Tree ring data emphasise that effective demarcation of water-limited from non-water-limited behaviour of stomata is critical to improving hydrological models that operate at regional to global scales.

Quantifying carbon in tree bark: The importance of bark morphology and tree size.

Bark contributes approximately 20% to the total above-ground biomass of trees, yet bark is not properly accounted for when estimating carbon sequestered by trees. Current allometric functions estimate tree volume from diameter measured over the bark, and derive bark density and carbon content from estimates for wood. As the bark density of hardwood species is 40%-50% lower than the wood density, but nearly equivalent in conifers, bark carbon is overestimated for most species. The latter is further exacerbated by variation in bark volume with bark surface morphology.Fissured bark volume is overestimated by diameter over bark measurements by up to 40%. The vacant space in fissures can be accounted for by a bark fissure index (BFI). We calculate bark carbon for Australian species from a non-destructive and effective BFI using bark thickness measured in the field.Bark volume, and in turn bark carbon, scaled inversely with tree size (diameter) so that bark volume comprised 42% of small trees (10 cm diameter at breast height, DBH) but 23% of large trees (50 cm DBH). Our BFI method using a bark thickness gauge (BGM) yielded similar results than using the less time-efficient contour gauge method (CM) to estimate BFI (bias BGM-CM -1.3%, non-significant at p = 0.72). Both BGM and CM had an error of <4% compared to digitized BFI from destructive sampled stem disks. An average of 15 bark gauge measurements per tree estimated bark thickness (and inconsequence BFI) for both fissured and unfissured bark with <20% error relative to the exact value.Using the bark gauge method, BFI can be rapidly measured from large numbers of trees needed for estimating bark carbon at the community level and modelling carbon uptake, storage and cycling in woody biomes.

Causes and consequences of Eastern Australia's 2019-20 season of mega-fires: A broader perspective.

Climates-especially seasonal and long-term droughts-and fuel loads combine to determine risks of wildfires across much of Australia. Here we illustrate how long-term accumulations of fuel combined with a serious drought to drive the behaviour and extent of recent fires in South-eastern Australia. This article is a commentary on Nolan et al. 26, 1039-1041.

Improving models of fine root carbon stocks and fluxes in European forests.

Fine roots and above-ground litterfall play a pivotal role in carbon dynamics in forests. Nonetheless, direct estimation of stocks of fine roots remains methodologically challenging. Models are thus widely used to estimate these stocks and help elucidate drivers of fine root growth and turnover, at a range of scales.We updated a database of fine root biomass, necromass and production derived from 454 plots across European forests. We then compared fine root biomass and production to estimates obtained from 19 different models. Typical input variables used for the models included climate, net primary production, foliage and above-ground biomass, leaf area index (LAI), latitude and/or land cover type. We tested whether performance could be improved by fitting new multiple regression models, and explored effects of species composition and sampling method on estimated fine root biomass.Average fine root biomass was 332 g/m2, and necromass 379 g/m2, for European forests where the average fine root production was 250 g m-2 year-1. Carbon fraction in fine roots averaged 48.4%, and was 1.5% greater in broadleaved species than conifers.Available models were poor predictors of fine root biomass and production. The best performing models assumed proportionality between above- and below-ground compartments, and used remotely sensed LAI or foliage biomass as key inputs. Model performance was improved by use of multiple regressions, which revealed consistently greater biomass and production in stands dominated by broadleaved species as well as in mixed stands even after accounting for climatic differences. Synthesis. We assessed the potential of existing models to estimate fine root biomass and production in European forests. We show that recalibration reduces by about 40% errors in estimates currently produced by the best available models, and increases three-fold explained variation. Our results underline the quantitative significance of fine roots (live and dead) to the global carbon cycle.

Canopy mortality has doubled in Europe's temperate forests over the last three decades.

Mortality is a key indicator of forest health, and increasing mortality can serve as bellwether for the impacts of global change on forest ecosystems. Here we analyze trends in forest canopy mortality between 1984 and 2016 over more than 30 Mill. ha of temperate forests in Europe, based on a unique dataset of 24,000 visually interpreted spectral trajectories from the Landsat archive. On average, 0.79% of the forest area was affected by natural or human-induced mortality annually. Canopy mortality increased by +2.40% year-1, doubling the forest area affected by mortality since 1984. Areas experiencing low-severity mortality increased more strongly than areas affected by stand-replacing mortality events. Changes in climate and land-use are likely causes of large-scale forest mortality increase. Our findings reveal profound changes in recent forest dynamics with important implications for carbon storage and biodiversity conservation, highlighting the importance of improved monitoring of forest mortality.

Carbon uptake by European agricultural land is variable, and in many regions could be increased: Evidence from remote sensing, yield statistics and models of potential productivity.

Agricultural plants, covering large parts of the global land surface and important for the livelihoods of people worldwide, fix carbon dioxide seasonally via photosynthesis. The carbon allocation of crops, however, remains relatively understudied compared to, for example, forests. For comprehensive consistent resource assessments or climate change impact studies large-scale reliable vegetation information is needed. Here, we demonstrate how robust data on carbon uptake in croplands can be obtained by combining multiple sources to enhance the reliability of estimates. Using yield statistics, a remote-sensing based productivity algorithm and climate-sensitive potential productivity, we mapped the potential to increase crop productivity and compared consistent carbon uptake information of agricultural land with forests. The productivity gap in Europe is higher in Eastern and Southern than in Central-Western countries. At continental scale, European agriculture shows a greater carbon uptake in harvestable compartments than forests (agriculture 1.96 vs. forests 1.76 t C ha-1 year-1). Mapping productivity gaps allows efforts to enhance crop production to be prioritized by, for example, improved crop cultivars, nutrient management or pest control. The concepts and methods for quantifying carbon uptake used in this study are applicable worldwide and allow forests and agriculture to be included in future carbon uptake assessments.

Invasive alien pests threaten the carbon stored in Europe's forests.

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering large amounts of carbon (C). However, forest C storage is not permanent, and large pulses of tree mortality can thwart climate mitigation efforts. Forest pests are increasingly redistributed around the globe. Yet, the potential future impact of invasive alien pests on the forest C cycle remains uncertain. Here we show that large parts of Europe could be invaded by five detrimental alien pests already under current climate. Climate change increases the potential range of alien pests particularly in Northern and Eastern Europe. We estimate the live C at risk from a potential future invasion as 1027 Tg C (10% of the European total), with a C recovery time of 34 years. We show that the impact of introduced pests could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe, calling for increased efforts to halt the introduction and spread of invasive alien species.

EFO-LCI: A New Life Cycle Inventory Database of Forestry Operations in Europe.

Life cycle assessment (LCA) has become a common methodology to analyze environmental impacts of forestry systems. Although LCA has been widely applied to forestry since the 90s, the LCAs are still often based on generic Life Cycle Inventory (LCI). With the purpose of improving LCA practices in the forestry sector, we developed a European Life Cycle Inventory of Forestry Operations (EFO-LCI) and analyzed the available information to check if within the European forestry sector national differences really exist. We classified the European forests on the basis of "Forest Units" (combinations of tree species and silvicultural practices). For each Forest Unit, we constructed the LCI of their forest management practices on the basis of a questionnaire filled out by national silvicultural experts. We analyzed the data reported to evaluate how they vary over Europe and how they affect LCA results and made freely available the inventory data collected for future use. The study shows important variability in rotation length, type of regeneration, amount and assortments of wood products harvested, and machinery used due to the differences in management practices. The existing variability on these activities sensibly affect LCA results of forestry practices and raw wood production. Although it is practically unfeasible to collect site-specific data for all the LCAs involving forest-based products, the use of less generic LCI data of forestry practice is desirable to improve the reliability of the studies. With the release of EFO-LCI we made a step toward the construction of regionalized LCI for the European forestry sector.

Climate variability drives recent tree mortality in Europe.

Tree mortality is an important process in forest ecosystems, frequently hypothesized to be highly climate sensitive. Yet, tree death remains one of the least understood processes of forest dynamics. Recently, changes in tree mortality have been observed in forests around the globe, which could profoundly affect ecosystem functioning and services provisioning to society. We describe continental-scale patterns of recent tree mortality from the only consistent pan-European forest monitoring network, identifying recent mortality hotspots in southern and northern Europe. Analyzing 925,462 annual observations of 235,895 trees between 2000 and 2012, we determine the influence of climate variability and tree age on interannual variation in tree mortality using Cox proportional hazard models. Warm summers as well as high seasonal variability in precipitation increased the likelihood of tree death. However, our data also suggest that reduced cold-induced mortality could compensate increased mortality related to peak temperatures in a warming climate. Besides climate variability, age was an important driver of tree mortality, with individual mortality probability decreasing with age over the first century of a trees life. A considerable portion of the observed variation in tree mortality could be explained by satellite-derived net primary productivity, suggesting that widely available remote sensing products can be used as an early warning indicator of widespread tree mortality. Our findings advance the understanding of patterns of large-scale tree mortality by demonstrating the influence of seasonal and diurnal climate variation, and highlight the potential of state-of-the-art remote sensing to anticipate an increased likelihood of tree mortality in space and time.